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[–]JamesYSmithson 89 очков90 очков  (3 дочерних комментария)

Great write up!

Also:

“My lord.” Ser Balon drew himself up. “On my sword, on my honor, on my father’s name, I swear... I shall not do as you did.”

One of the best comebacks in the series

[–]Bigbaby22The Young Black Wolf 42 очка43 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

It makes it even better that it seems to not even be a slight or dig. He's just not beating around the bush.

[–]mankytoes 20 очков21 очко  (0 дочерних комментарев)

I'd forgotten that, I never see that in the list of great put down when you sometimes see people asking for the best. I can't tell if he's trying to shame Jaime, or actually just trying to be clear on his loyalty, which makes it funnier.

[–]Alivealive0I am The Green Bard! 6 очков7 очков  (0 дочерних комментарев)

One of my favorite lines as well. It would be beaten by Jaime's to the Blackfish, if he'd only said it aloud.

"Your word of honor?" Ser Brynden raised an eyebrow. "Do you even know what honor is?"

A horse. "I will swear any oath that you require."

[–]TheOrphanmakersaga 198 очков199 очков  (9 дочерних комментарев)

Great analysis. Its nice to be reminded that Dorne isn't just an excuse for bad jokes and a new set of tits to show. Thank you for such thoughtful and thorough analysis

[–]ImperatorMauricius 23 очка24 очка  (8 дочерних комментарев)

I just hate knowing that even though they aren’t a set of tits and bad jokes they will end up being irrelevant, starks win, Aegon loses, some random prince will back bran at the council.

[–]jwboers123 36 очков37 очков  (6 дочерних комментарев)

Not going to happen, they most likely bombined Feagon and Jon.

[–]ImperatorMauricius 0 очков1 очко  (3 дочерних комментария)

Yeah, even if they did we still get the shit ending; Aegon VI will die and Jon will Be King beyond the broken wall

[–]JakajaFIN 6 очков7 очков  (1 дочерний комментарий)

fAegon dying and Jon leaving to live in the North isn't a bad ending to the books imo. This is like saying that Shire getting mutilated at the end of RotK is a bad ending. Untrue on many accounts, since that isn't the entire ending and LotR isn't about how it ends. The same applies for asoiaf.

[–]Smilingaudibly 10 очков11 очков  (0 дочерних комментарев)

These are my favorite kinds of essays to read on this sub! Thank you for the time you put into it. I feel embarrassed that I completely missed this little subplot about Swann's secret mission.

[–]RhoynefahrtBig Dany stan 35 очков36 очков  (10 дочерних комментарев)

I like it, but I don't think Doran is telling the truth about uncovering a plot to kill Trystane. Cersei quite reasonably suspected that Tyrion was hiding in Dorne with the Martells. If that had actually been the case, Doran would've known, after the attack, that it was staged. The whole point was (presumably) to make Doran exonerate Cersei by pinning the blame on Tyrion and his mountain clansmen, thus freeing Myrcella from being a hostage in Dorne while keeping the alliance.

[–]hollowaydivision🏆 Best of 2019: Best New Theory[S] 52 очка53 очка  (5 дочерних комментарев)

I looked carefully at this possibility, but at this point I honestly think people are overthinking it. A moral conflict with Ser Balon is coming, as was foreshadowed with him and Jaime. It makes sense for him to have more reason to disobey his orders.

And the surprise coming from Ser Balon would fit the story, I think, in that Cersei never should have ordered him to do this in the first place. We were told about Cersei’s weakness in this, after all:

Petyr teased her with a little smile. "In the game of thrones, even the humblest pieces can have wills of their own. Sometimes they refuse to make the moves you've planned for them. Mark that well, Alayne. It's a lesson that Cersei Lannister still has yet to learn.

In Feast, we learn Cersei sent Ser Balon to Dorne and that he has “another task” that is “best left unsaid.”

In Dance, Doran reveals the task. He confirms it beforehand by getting a reaction from Ser Balon at dinner.

Beyond that, Ser Balon is obviously uncomfortable and even sweating when he is discussing it.

"I know King's Landing will welcome him most warmly."

Why is he sweating now? the captain wondered, watching. The hall is cool enough, and he never touched the stew.

Everything seems to fit. And it is within Cersei’s character to come up with the plan, even if it is not in Ser Balon’s character to obey such an order.


The larger mystery with Ser Balon is, why wouldn’t Myrcella just tell him the truth. Arianne’s relationship with Myrcella is not sufficient to explain this, as Obara points out.

We learned in Feast that Doran knew the Golden Company was probably coming to Westeros. The Darkstar Hunt is a good way to delay until Ser Balon learns of them, but how could Doran have known Ser Balon would accept to hunt down Darkstar?

The only way, I think, is if whatever task Cersei gave him was immensely dishonorable. So it seems to fit.

[–]RhoynefahrtBig Dany stan 10 очков11 очков  (4 дочерних комментария)

That Littlefinger quote certainly strengthens your case.

However, the simpler explanation for what the "other task" was, is that it was bringing Myrcella home. Cersei only tells the council that Balon is sent to bring Gregor's head.

And as a knight from the Dornish Marches, Balon has reason enough to be uncomfortable surrounded by Dornishmen. That is something Arys experiences. And while Arys couldn't resist Arianne flirting with him, Balon is trying to do that (he might be gay, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't be uncomfortable with it). Other things that make him uncomfortable include how bloodthirsty the Sand Snakes are, the fact that many dinner guests don't toast King Tommen, being asked to condemn Gregor as a horrible person and the fact that they are served spun-sugar skulls as a joke.

[–]hollowaydivision🏆 Best of 2019: Best New Theory[S] 17 очков18 очков  (3 дочерних комментария)

I think that Hotah’s observations show serious discomfort. Especially the second time Hotah observes it — Why does Ser Balton balk at the notion of going by ship?

Later, why does he accept the hunt for Darkstar?

On the other hand, let’s say you’re right. Doran then lied about the Trystane plot — but why? All it does is set up conflict between Obara and Ser Balon, who are now in Hotah’s posse, and make their failure more likely. It also does nothing to prevent the ultimate reality that sooner or later Myrcella will tell about the queenmaker.

[–]RhoynefahrtBig Dany stan 5 очков6 очков  (1 дочерний комментарий)

On the other hand, let’s say you’re right. Doran then lied about the Trystane plot — but why?

I think it sets up for the Sand Snakes to trust Doran. They needed to be convinced that he is doing more than just "prevaricating". Now they can be dispatched and expected to follow at least some of his orders.

[–]Alivealive0I am The Green Bard! 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

This is true, but at best I give your argument 50/50.

[–]Alivealive0I am The Green Bard! 0 очков1 очко  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Why does Ser Balton balk at the notion of going by ship?

You guys just had the exact discussion I wanted to cover with you. I think you might be right on your conclusion about the "halfman" plot being real. Still, we know that Doran has already sent "Myrcella" (maybe Rosamund?) back to King's Landing with Nym. AFAIK Trystane is staying behind, and I don't see how Balon would even get the chance to harm Trystane, as it seems clear that Doran doesn't intend to put him in harm's way (he needs a spare heir).

Is it your assumption that Swann knows of Nym's party's departure? Would he know Rosamund from Myrcella? Which girl do you think is going back with Nym? Which do you think was cut by "Darkstar"? Do you think it really was Darkstar? I find it highly unlikely that Doran sends back the real Myrcella. If it's Rosamund he's sending, do you think Doran saw through the ruse, and has the real Mycella under lock and key?

[–]M_Tootles🏆 Best of 2019: Alchemist Award 11 очков12 очков  (3 дочерних комментария)

I'm trying to follow you, tell me if I have this right.

  1. You're saying that Doran is making up the plot.
  2. You're saying Cersei suspects Tyrion is in Dorne, and thus wouldn't have orchestrated a plot wherein Tyrion would be blamed for the attaack, since Doran, who in Cersei's mind may be sheltering Tyrion, would then realize that somebody else was to blame for his son's death? Like Cersei?

I think you're right right about Cersei suspecting Tyrion in Dorne, but wrong about the consequence. Or rather: wrong that per this scenario, it would be a disaster if Doran realizes Trystane was killed by not-Tyrion and possibly/probably-agents-of-Cersei.

I'll try to explain.

Cersei is obsessed with getting Tyrion, who she thinks is prophesized to kill her. For her, that would be a bigger get than winning Dorne's allegiance, even.

Now, if Doran is sheltering Tyrion, then he's not a friend to Cersei, full stop. So wouldn't Cersei think she can freely blame Tyrion, since one of two outcomes will follow:

  1. Tyrion ISN'T in Dorne, in which case PERFECT. Trystane is dead, Myrcella is free, the Dornish blame Tyrion.

  2. Tyrion IS in hiding in Dorne with Doran's knowledge, in which case Tyrstane is dead, Myrcella is free, and Doran must either expose himself as a friend of Tyrion and thus mortal enemy of Cersei (in the event that he calls her on her bullshit) or keep his mouth shut and pretend to go along with blaming Tyrion (in which case he remains on the sidelines).

Basically, if number 2, Doran has already cast his die per Cersei, and Cersei DGAF if he figures out she's killed Tyrstane, since he's already a write-off for sheltering Tyrion in the first place.\

PS: Great point to bring up, though, got me thinking. Obvs.

EDIT: numbered list formatting

[–]RhoynefahrtBig Dany stan 5 очков6 очков  (1 дочерний комментарий)

I mean, you're kind of right, I just don't think Cersei has thought that much about it. And also, in your second scenario, Doran would have the upper hand, since he would not need to expose himself. If Cersei legitimately wanted to test if Doran was sheltering Tyrion, this is not how to do it. Sure, Dorne would've been an enemy regardless, so the alliance might as well be dissolved. But Cersei has an even bigger problem on her hands if Doran pretends to remain her ally, now having a personal reason for wanting vengeance on Cersei. Meanwhile Cersei wouldn't know if he could be trusted.

[–]M_Tootles🏆 Best of 2019: Alchemist Award 3 очка4 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

I just don't think Cersei has thought that much about it.


If Cersei legitimately wanted to test if Doran was sheltering Tyrion, this is not how to do it.

I don't disagree with either of these statements, entirely. But I don't see how either gainsays the scenario. She's impetuous, desperate to recover Myrcella, and not as savvy as she thinks she is.

But Cersei has an even bigger problem on her hands if Doran pretends to remain her ally… Meanwhile Cersei wouldn't know if he could be trusted.

This just goes to the point i made, though. If Doran has Tyrion, HE'S PRETENDING TO BE HER ALLY, AND SHE DOESN'T KNOW IF SHE CAN TRUST HIM.

Literally nothing changes. Except she gets Myrcella back and kills Trystane.

[–]RhoynefahrtBig Dany stan 0 очков1 очко  (0 дочерних комментарев)

One more thing. It may be possible to come up with an explanation for why Cersei would plan an assassination attempt in which Tyrion is the scapegoat while at the same time suspecting Dorne of sheltering him. But then it becomes a lot more complicated. Cersei no longer just wants (1) to get Myrcella home and (2) to escape blame for the murder. This supposed scheme would also involve trying to figure out whether Tyrion was in Dorne or not. And while Cersei may be smart enough to come up with such a plan, I think it's odd that this plan is never discussed in one of her chapters. The fact that we only hear it from Doran should make us ask if perhaps he invented it.

[–]Estevaozinho 8 очков9 очков  (8 дочерних комментарев)

Fantastic summary.

I’ve always been a fan of Ser Balon Swann.

Him spending so long learning archery and Morningstar instead of just sword and lance shows that he’s more interested in being deadly rather than looking gallant with lance and sword.

You would never see Loras use Morningstar or Bow.

Edit: turns out Loras does use the Morningstar, I was just being a Loras hater.

[–][deleted] 3 очка4 очка  (5 дочерних комментарев)

"...but that was too slow for the Knight of Flowers...He rode straight into the dragon's mouth, they say, all in white and swinging his morningstar about his head, slaying left and right."

I don't think you give Loras enough credit.

[–]Estevaozinho 1 очко2 очка  (4 дочерних комментария)

Damn, you really got me there!

I just thought I’d throw in some Loras hate because I dislike the guy.

I’m impressed that you can remember such a specific thing. It’s not even a POV’s battle, just a retelling.

[–][deleted] 4 очка5 очков  (3 дочерних комментария)

My memory isn't that good. I just vaguely remembered something something Loras morningstar and used a search of ice and fire for the quote.

What don't you like about Loras? For me he seems like a pretty realistic hot-headed teenage boy who's been given a lot of authority and responsibility at a young age.

Obviously killing the other rainbow guard is not cool, but he just seems very human to me.

[–]Estevaozinho 3 очка4 очка  (2 дочерних комментария)

Still impressive!

A few things: his support for Renly the obviously usurper, his killing of the guards, Cat’s opinion about being a “summer knight”.

Tyrells are my least favourite great house in general. Redwynes and Hightowers seem like much cooler Reach houses.

Also, I’m a second son myself and so I always like/support other second sons. Hence I support Stannis and dislike the Renly gang.

[–][deleted] 4 очка5 очков  (1 дочерний комментарий)

Don't get me wrong, Stannis was right, but Loras to me seems like a teenage boy in love with and idolizing someone older and more powerful than himself. His support for Renly is understandable.

I also think Loras's actions have shown that despite his faults cat's analysis is a bit off.

Killing the guards was fucked but again hot-headed teenage boy who has been given way too much authority for his age whose first love was just murdered. It makes him human.

When he found out that Robar and Emmon were probably innocent from Jaime he shows serious remorse. I think book!Loras is a complex and very human character. Not necessarily a great guy, but understandable.

[–]Estevaozinho 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

You’re right, it’s just a personal dislike.

It’s not his fault he loves Renly and it’s not his fault that he’s spoilt. He’s just one of the characters I was never a fan of.

[–]TallTreesTownA peaceful land, a Quiet Isle. 1 очко2 очка  (1 дочерний комментарий)

I forgot about that. Maybe he'll shoot a dragon through the eye in A Dream of Spring.

[–]Estevaozinho 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

I think he’s more likely to kill his brother with his Morningstar.

It would be a subtle reference to the famous mace user Maekar I who accidentally killed his brother Baelor Breakspear with his mace.

(A mace is basically a Morningstar without spikes)

[–]Prof_Cecily🏆 Best of 2019: Crow of the Year 5 очков6 очков  (2 дочерних комментария)

the only one Jaime considers a benefit to the Kingsguard.

No love for Ser Loras?

[–]KingMaegorTheCool 3 очка4 очка  (1 дочерний комментарий)

Prior feast, Jaime see Loras as him come again, young arrogant, and pure chivalry, and he believed that the young him isn’t fit to be a kingguard, but in feast Jaime come to respect Loras, even asking Cersei to make Loras a lord commander after him

[–]Prof_Cecily🏆 Best of 2019: Crow of the Year 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Precisely what I was thinking of, that and the training Ser Loras tries to give to King Tommen. And replies to our beloved Cersei.

"Yes, I thought as much." Cersei had seen how tight the bonds grew between squires and the knights they served. She did not want Tommen growing close to Loras Tyrell. The Knight of Flowers was no sort of man for any boy to emulate. "I have been remiss. With a realm to rule, a war to fight, and a father to mourn, somehow I overlooked the crucial matter of naming a new master-at-arms. I shall rectify that error at once."
Ser Loras pushed back a brown curl that had fallen across his forehead. "Your Grace will not find any man half so skilled with sword and lance as I."

And later

Three thousand smallfolk had crowded through the Mud Gate to see Ser Loras off the day he sailed, and three of every four were women. The sight had only served to fill her with contempt. She had wanted to scream at them that they were sheep, to tell them that all that they could ever hope to get from Loras Tyrell was a smile and a flower. Instead she had proclaimed him the boldest knight in the Seven Kingdoms, and smiled as Tommen presented him with a jeweled sword to carry into battle. The king had given him a hug as well, which had not been part of Cersei's plans, but it made no matter now. She could afford to be generous. Loras Tyrell was dying.

Still, you have to admire Ser Balon!

Lady Tanda gave a small supper last night. I have the menu and the guest list for your inspection. When the wine was poured, Lord Gyles rose to lift a cup to the king, and Ser Balon Swann was heard to remark, 'We'll need three cups for that.' Many laughed . . ."

[–][deleted] 5 очков6 очков  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Balon Swann is one of my favorite characters. He is Sansa's description of a "true knight", but because he is not as beautiful like Loras she doesn't seem to talk about him as much as time progresses. He is usually with other people as well so that probably is a huge factor.

[–]ravntheraven"Beware our Sting" 9 очков10 очков  (8 дочерних комментарев)

For some reason I assumed Ser Balon Swann was fat and useless, which am I thinking of? Is it Ser Boros Blount?

[–]bluesguy72 26 очков27 очков  (6 дочерних комментарев)

Yep, Boros was demoted to Tommen’s food taster IIRC.

[–]mankytoes 6 очков7 очков  (5 дочерних комментарев)

I find Boros funny in just how useless he is. Fat, cowardly, a poor fighter, mean and angry, liked by no one... I guess there's nothing truly evil about him, but he still has no redeeming features we can see.

[–]cwonderful 6 очков7 очков  (0 дочерних комментарев)

He hit Sansa when joff told him to so he can fuck off and die anytime.

[–]SnukkemsSer Kapland Dragonsbane 0 очков1 очко  (2 дочерних комментария)

Isn't he the chatty one that balks at hitting Sansa?

[–]bluesguy72 2 очка3 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Oakheart is the one who balks the most at hitting Sansa, I do know that. I can’t remember if Boros also complains about doing it though.

[–]mankytoes 2 очка3 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Nope, she actually says he's the worst. That's Arys I'm pretty sure.

[–]Bigbaby22The Young Black Wolf 3 очка4 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

I often confuse them as well. Which I really shouldn't... Sorry, Balon

[–][deleted] 3 очка4 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Or he will died with Tommen like Ser Rickard Thorne with Maelor Targaryen.

[–]Mithras_StonebornHim of Manly Feces 6 очков7 очков  (2 дочерних комментария)

I think he and Darkstar might go to Essos to serve Dany after they tag team Hotah and Obara.

[–]hollowaydivision🏆 Best of 2019: Best New Theory[S] 11 очков12 очков  (1 дочерний комментарий)

It does seem like there is some betrayal coming by somebody in the posse.

However, there’s also reasons for Dayne and Obara to team up. Obara wants Oldtown, and if Ser Gerold is anything like his ancestor the Starfire he might be interested.

I’ve also moved away from the idea that Areo Hotah will die and vanish from the story soon. I’ve been rereading his chapters, wondering why GRRM gave us this strange Norvoshi when he was trying to develop Dorne, and Hotah is a more interesting character than I perhaps gave him credit for in the past.

Martin has said he tries to avoid having characters who are just cameras, and Hotah is currently exactly what Martin claims he doesn’t do. So he has to grow as a character and have his heart in conflict with itself before he dies. I think he may have a little more of a future.

[–]TallTreesTownA peaceful land, a Quiet Isle. 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Do you think Euron's ironmen could be involved somehow? Do you think Euron will try to raid Starfall at some point?

[–]Bigbaby22The Young Black Wolf 2 очка3 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

I think Balon is exactly what we see: valient, honarable, chivalrous, and honest. I don't think he knew anything of Cersei's plan. From the sound of it, I think Cersei set up for his caravan to be attacked but he wouldn't be in the know.

I think his discomfort stems from his company, the psychotic Sand Snakes (who have a reputation to almost match their father's) and the fact that Arys died suspiciously. He's supping in a den of vipers. That's enough to make any man sweat.

I do like the idea of Balon joining Young Griff though. Maybe because I just like the kid and he seems like he has a good cause. I think Balon would be suited for his service.

[–]johnjohn81Lover of Peaches 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Very well put together

[–]TallTreesTownA peaceful land, a Quiet Isle. 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

With all the discussion of false flags you should have submitted this yesterday.

[–]TallTreesTownA peaceful land, a Quiet Isle. 1 очко2 очка  (1 дочерний комментарий)

Do you think the Swann sigil foreshadows anything?

I wonder what Balon's views are on the Faith Militant? Was his ancestor Byron a follower of the Shepherd? Could this rhyme in Balon's future?

Don't forget about the untapped Dondarrion soldiers. The Dornish would have a much easier time invading the Reach through the Prince's Pass than travelling to Aegon if the Reacher lords decide to oppose them. I wonder how Aegon will rally them against the Lannisters. With Edric Storm?

[–]hollowaydivision🏆 Best of 2019: Best New Theory[S] 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Well, there is another configuration to this theory. Let's say Lord Gulian goes over to Aegon, and Aegon makes Ser Donnel a member of the Kingsguard. JonCon does say they're looking for "younger sons of great lords." But then Ser Balon keeps his oath, as he promised Jaime he would do, and continues to serve Tommen.

You then have a modern day Arryk/Erryk on the respective kingsguard, as well as the reason for the prominence of characters observing the swans on the sigil to be battling each other.

"Ser Balon Swann, of Stonehelm in the Red Watch," came the herald's cry. Wide white wings ornamented Ser Balon's greathelm, and black and white swans fought on his shield.


Ser Balon Swann was taut as a drawn bow, the captain of guards observed. This new white knight was not so tall nor comely as the old one, but he was bigger across the chest, burlier, his arms thick with muscle. His snowy cloak was clasped at the throat by two swans on a silver brooch. One was ivory, the other onyx, and it seemed to Areo Hotah as if the two of them were fighting. The man who wore them looked a fighter too.


"Ser Gawen of House Swann, Lord of Stonehelm on the Cape of Wrath." A pair of swans, one black and one white, fought furiously on his arms. Lord Gawen's armor, cloak, and horse bardings were a riot of black and white as well, down to the stripes on his scabbard and lance.

It's hard to say which way it will go, but I suppose this would mean Ser Balon makes it out of darkstarhunt alive

[–]M_Tootles🏆 Best of 2019: Alchemist Award 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Good stuff. I'm so off on my own shit right now my favorite bit was bizarrely the spotlight on the war-wounded "Donnel" Swann (bc rhyming and (a) Quellon's son "Donel" Greyjoy, and (b) the war-veteran friend of the war-wounded Elder Brother, Septon Meribald, of the "shock of thick grey hair" like the "shock of thick brown hair" of "Donnel" Waynwood, (c) black and white swans, with black and white making grey).

[–]farfromcenter 1 очко2 очка  (0 дочерних комментарев)

This was wonderful and I have been reluctant to go back to re-reading them but this thread helped me see Doran in a new light. Some of y’all must be English majors!

[–]Gmdmaster 0 очков1 очко  (2 дочерних комментария)

Can someone provide me with a chapter and book of when jaime interrogates Ser balon swann

[–]Bigbaby22The Young Black Wolf 0 очков1 очко  (1 дочерний комментарий)

I just read it yesterday actually... I believe it is Jaime's second to last chapter in Storm of Swords

[–]bamboozled-dodo123 0 очков1 очко  (2 дочерних комментария)

Can someone clarify the Loras situation, I’m a little lost.

[–]Solid_Freakin_SnakeSean Bean Morghulis 0 очков1 очко  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Damn dude. Well crafted analysis and theory. Reading great stuff like this makes me realize that I truly need to put aside some time to re-read the books. Hell, this sub is the whole reason I joined Reddit and it's easily been at least 5 years since I even touched my books (having a kid really fucks with your free time lol).

[–]ThisIsUrIAmUr 0 очков1 очко  (0 дочерних комментарев)

The amount of times he's described sweating or wiping sweat from his face cracks me up. Rather a nervous kingsguard, outside of battle anyway.

[–]Wild2098Woe to the Usurper if we had been 0 очков1 очко  (0 дочерних комментарев)

Me likey dat.

Interesting tidbit about the Darklyn defector and the crown.

Which crown do you think Aegon will receive? Jaehaerys' crown was sold and most likey gone

Aegon I's crown is lost in Dorne, apparently.